tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-54051532011-07-14T20:43:12.744-04:00Emerging TechnologyDebating emerging technology issues since May 15, 2003. This blog focuses less on news about emerging technology and more on identifying important trends, understanding their impact, predicting their implications, and recommending courses of action for businesses and individuals. The blog may also have more of an east coast philosophical / cultural bent than west coast, since the authors all live in Boston.VR Foundernoreply@blogger.comBlogger181100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5405153.post-1058325809965796532003-07-15T23:23:00.000-04:002003-07-15T23:23:29.986-04:00La Morte de Software?
One relatively hot question kicked off by Larry Ellison at the beginning of the year concerns the maturity of the software industry. Has the software industry matured? First, what do we mean by matured? Typically this refers to a decline in the revenue growth of industry players leading to flat growth and eventual decline in industry revenues. Jeffray Kay in his recent VR Foundernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5405153.post-1057786609146392892003-07-09T17:36:00.000-04:002003-07-10T10:27:45.080-04:00Early Adoption Framework v2.0: Addendum
There is another way to identify industries and companies that are likely to be early adopters of a new technology. Let's call this method the "substitute" method. The method involves simply identifying what current product, process, or skill the technology can replace. In the case of RFID, RFID tags are very similar to bar codes and hence substitute VR Foundernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5405153.post-1057785993739533282003-07-09T17:26:00.000-04:002003-07-10T10:23:40.606-04:00Early Adoption Framework: A First Stab Using the Example of RFID
So, true to my word I have been thinking about a framework that could be used to help us identify where early adoption is likely to take place. Here is the basic framework--but remember this is v 1.0 and I hope to refine this over time. Let first make the assumption (and I realize this is quite a large assumption) that VR Foundernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5405153.post-1057692099777127072003-07-08T15:21:00.000-04:002003-07-08T15:21:39.813-04:00Back to RFID: Uses and Thoughts
I want to spur on the discussion of RFID. What are its primary uses? Perhaps this is too broad of a question. Where are we likely to see early adoption of RFID? What kind of a framework can we create that would allow us to guess where early adoption is likely to take place. I will be thinking about this question over the next little whil and I will get backVR Foundernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5405153.post-1057691918011698452003-07-08T15:18:00.000-04:002003-07-08T15:41:45.700-04:00iTunes Music Store: On the Side of Unsustainability
Several great posts are showing in blog-land on this topic. I really like the ones here and here.
First let me lay out a few categories of sustainability--for the purposes of this discussion I will focus on revenue growth as the primary metric of sustainability. Category 1: the company, organization or business continues to remain in VR Foundernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5405153.post-1055391271156790552003-06-12T00:14:00.000-04:002003-06-12T00:18:47.486-04:00iTunes Music Store: A Quick Pass
It's midnight, but I want to add a few thoughts on the iTunes music store. "Is this model sustainable," asks Jeron. Well, I don't have a crystal ball, but yeah, I think it's sustainable. I don't think, though, that it's the only sustainable model for online music. Current offerings like eMusic and Rhapsody charge a monthly subscription in return for unlimited Thomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14708709737213957249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5405153.post-1055388471639660532003-06-11T23:27:00.000-04:002003-06-11T23:27:58.790-04:00Vindication? Not from one report.
Jeron, those are very interseting statistics. You didn't post the report, so I won't spend time trying to critique it. If true, it's certainly indicative of something. It may even indicate that Linux/OSS are less secure than closed-source software, though there are plenty of other explanations. I'd be happy to share some, but I think it's much more fun to poke Thomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14708709737213957249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5405153.post-1055190673579234742003-06-09T16:31:00.000-04:002003-06-09T16:31:13.620-04:00VR Foundernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5405153.post-1055187478575150292003-06-09T15:37:00.000-04:002003-06-09T16:27:34.616-04:00RFID Tags: Early Uses
OK. Enough about security. Let's move on. I want to talk about RFID tags. The basic idea as I understand it is that these are bar codes with antennae. Initial uses are supposed to occur primarily in the supply-chain management and shrinkage management areas. Some companies, like Bennetton have already tried to embed RFIDs in clothing but met with a gigantic uproar VR Foundernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5405153.post-1055187210630395742003-06-09T15:33:00.000-04:002003-06-09T16:31:53.953-04:00Vindication: Recent News about Linux Security
After initially revising some my historical data about the security of Linux vs. MSFT and recognizing the failure of a crucial part of my argument, I maintained that in the long-run, it will be hard for Linux to remain as secure as MSFT. A recent article in the SC Infosecurity Newswire appears to back my claim:
LINUX ATTACKS ARE UP, ACCORDING TO VR Foundernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5405153.post-1054670364550685292003-06-03T15:59:00.000-04:002003-06-09T15:34:53.006-04:00Intrusion Detection and Prevention--A Model for Making a Market out of Artificial Intelligence Software?
While reading a recent McKinsey Quarterly article (you may have to register to see it) on artificial intelligence, I couldn't help but to think about the recent popularity enjoyed by the intrusion detection and intrusion prevention markets. Intrusion detection is one of the few technologies VR Foundernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5405153.post-1053955212799501782003-05-26T09:20:00.000-04:002003-09-23T21:14:29.496-04:00Tail between My Legs: MSFT vs. Linux
OK. I have made several mistakes and the general thrust of much of what Thom says is correct. That said, I will not cede the point that I believe at some level MSFT must have the ability to be or become more secure than Linux. In my earlier argument, I made several errors about the relative security of MSFT web servers versus Linux servers. I have VR Foundernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5405153.post-1053551325331932132003-05-21T17:08:00.000-04:002003-05-21T23:36:04.473-04:00[Note: this rebuttal was written in response to Jeron's post of May 20 (and its subsequent edit). It does not explicitly address his post of May 21st, which essentially concurs with my analysis of the CERT advisories from 2002 & 2003.]
First, let me make clear that this discussion is focusing on the issue of security. I dispute Jeron's claims that Microsoft has advantages in "customer support, Thomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14708709737213957249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5405153.post-1053528733756727672003-05-21T10:52:00.000-04:002003-05-21T23:20:17.933-04:00MSFT vs. Linux Security
I must amend my earlier argument. I ran some interesting numbers based on some information that I found on the Internet. According to a survey performed by Attrition (www.attrition.org/mirror/attrition/os.html) over a 1 year 4 month period it tracked 8071 separate incidents of web site hacking and defacement. The OS percentages for these incidents were 56.57% Windows, VR Foundernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5405153.post-1053516443739616782003-05-21T07:27:00.000-04:002003-05-21T07:27:23.206-04:00iTunes--Finally Somebody Does it Right
A quick question for my fellow bloggers. Is the iTunes business model sustainable? Finally somebody has narrowed the wedge between costs / benefits of getting free music at places like KaZaa and Morpheus and the costs / benefits of getting Big 5 music company-sanctioned music legitimately over the Internet. Generally, I view the value proposition of VR Foundernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5405153.post-1053467032290097862003-05-20T17:43:00.000-04:002003-05-23T17:55:42.196-04:00Why Open Source OSes (like Linux) Will Never Overtake Microsoft
Most of the arguments that I have heard on this subject contrast the constant improvement, adaptability, and low-cost advantages of open source with the customer support, installed base and ongoing innovation advantages of Microsoft. I want to add a dimension that I believe has not been fully fleshed out: security. Despite its VR Foundernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5405153.post-1053466294396374082003-05-20T17:31:00.000-04:002003-05-21T07:27:57.180-04:00Meet the Founders
Ayr Muir-Harmony (of MIT, Harvard Business School, and McKinsey fame) and Thom Goodsell (of Charles River Analytics), two of the smartest, opinionated, and occassionally "downright ornery" technology people I know, have agreed to co-found the emerging tech blog with me. In some discussions we realized that we wanted to be clear that this blog will focus on topics of debate andVR Foundernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5405153.post-1053225637294406312003-05-17T22:40:00.000-04:002003-05-21T07:28:13.636-04:00Welcome
Welcome to the inauguration of the emerging tech blog. I am trying to do something a bit different here than some of the other technology blogs like corante.com. In this blog I would like to slow down the timing of posts and instead focus on creating more integrative, well-reasoned assessments of early technologies. I will draw on insights from the best technological and VR Foundernoreply@blogger.com